Labour unrest in 2011 to be 'muted'

Continued economic uncertainty should lessen the chances of labour unrest in 2011 though collective bargaining in some segments of the private sector is expected to be contentious — such as manufacturing, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s Industrial Relations Outlook 2011: From Conflict to Cooperation?

“Given the current economic conditions, labour and management have demonstrated a willingness to reach settlements without resulting in work stoppages. Public sector unions appear to have accepted that there is little or no public support for aggressive stances at the bargaining table and are being very cautious,” said Karla Thorpe, associate director of compensation and industrial relations at the Conference Board. “On the other hand, conditions in the manufacturing sector are ripe for conflict.”

Collective bargaining in the manufacturing sector is expected to be difficult as employers are struggling to limit labour costs in the face of increasing international competition, relatively weak demand and a high Canadian dollar that affects exports particularly hard, said the report. Nevertheless, given the improved economic environment compared to one year ago and pending labour shortages, private sector unions will be looking to make real wage gains.

Negotiated increases for unionized employees in the private sector are expected to average 2.1 per cent, higher than those in the public sector at 1.4 per cent in 2011, said the Conference Board.

Labour disputes in the public sector have declined since a recent peak in 2009. Faced with deficit spending during the recession and increased public debt, the federal and provincial governments continue to focus on limiting wage increases and, in many instances, reducing employment. Public sector unions will focus on maintaining existing wages and benefits while preserving as many jobs as possible.